Good morning! This is a follow up on our prior post on Prismatic Evolutions, where we now have tcgplayer’s estimate on pack pull rates and a very important piece of information on the lack of illustration rares within the set. Based on the above, we state upfront our initial impressions have switched from positive to neutral.
Lack of illustration rares
Looking at tcgplayer’s Prismatic Evolutions price guide, we see there are no illustration rares. This contrats with Scarlet & Violet 151, which had an abundance of popular Illustration Rares. This is a mistake by the Pokémon Company. Even if you didn’t get an SIR, pull rates for Illustration Rares were good enough to make opening SV151 packs feel worthwhile. What we’ll see with Prismatic Evolutions is that each pack will be a swing and a miss or a hero, with very little in between. The value of rares, double rares, and ACE SPEC rares are already sinking after 1 day, with more supply incoming to makeup for shortfalls. This is strictly from a financial perspective. From an art perspective, there are sprinkles of wonder at all levels.
TCGPlayer pull rates
We wrote yesterday pull rates for any specific Special Illustration Rare are 1 in 1000 packs. TCGPlayer confirms those numbers by saying a specific SIR pull rate is 1 in 1,440 packs. That’s a total value spent of $17,280 at $12 a pack. Sunbreon as it now called by a few has a market price of $1618 today. There is no guarantee you’ll pull a Sunbreon either.
Whether your personal chase card in Prismatic Evolutions is the Master Ball or Special Illustration Rare version of your favorite Eeveelution, don’t curse your luck until you’re 1000 packs deep and still searching. In our sample, after more than 1,200 packs, a few Master Ball and SIR cards had still completely evaded us.
Peter Day for TCGPlayer Infinite
Conclusion
Given the hit or miss nature of the set, the lack of Illustration Rares, and the price per pack, we reiterate buying your favorite singles to collect or play is the way to go. The price of a standard ETB has gone from close to $160 to close to $120 after release. The only reason we downgraded our expectations to neutral rather than negative is some of the fantastic art work and the chance for the first English master ball foil in this set.
We stopped buying Pokémon for individual card resale when our last SV 151 ETB had about $15 in value when we spent about $100 on it. It’s tough for a very small business to sustain itself and buy more product unless you have a deep well of money to balance out the highs and lows. Other tcg’s have good cards sprinkled out throughout various rarities rather than only the highest levels.
Our tcgplayer link is here:
https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?seller=bed86ca2&view=grid
Just send us a message with smilingdad in the description, and we’ll give you 5% off!
Happy collecting and thanks for reading!
Sincerely yours,
smilingdad
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