Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn expected value

Written on January 23rd, 2024

Hello, and Happy (delayed) New Year! We’ve been busy running around and hope to start writing again. Hope you have had a good start to the year. In today’s post, we’ll go over Rise of the Floodborn’s expected value, Disney’s second set in their new trading card game. We owe our readers a review of Q4 investments soon.

Total value of Floodborn

We created a Google Sheet looking at the value of regular, cold foil, and holo enchanted cards. We broke down the value by common, uncommon, rare, super rare, legendaries, and enchanted. All these are necessary to determine the value of a pack. All values are from tcgplayer.com as of Jan 21, 2024. As expected, the Enchanted cards drive the most investing value. In a twist, that doesn’t mean they drive the most playing value. We see a lot of rares and super rares that are useful to play.

Total Enchanted (12): $1,327.05

Total Regular (204): $220.70

Total Cold Foil (204): $461.24

Total Commons (72): $5.83, average value of 8 cents

Total Uncommons (54): $8.99, average value of 17 cents

Total Rares (48): $42.25, average value of 88 cents

Total Super Rares (18): $31.01, average value of $1.72

Total Legendary’s (12): $132.62, average value of $11.05

Total Enchanted (12): $1327.05, average value of $110.59

Average pack price: $5.00 (before tax)

That means buying an estimated 309 packs to complete the regular set plus Enchanted cards. I don’t recommend doing that. Initial reports suggest that your chance of getting an Enchanted is 1 in 72 packs. That’s 864 packs, or 36 booster boxes. To complete the Cold Foil set, you would need about 216 packs (there is one cold foil card per pack, and if you really wanted a cold foil card but got an Enchanted 😂 you would need an extra 12 packs).

We bought one booster box. We got most of the regular cards. Therefore, it makes sense after some time to buy singles for the missing cards. It makes sense to buy singles for cold foil cards you want and Enchanted cards. It minimizes bulk cards that you don’t need, taking up money and space.

Expected value of a Floodborn pack

In each Lorcana pack, we get the following. 6 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 2 rare, super rare or legendary cards, and 1 foil card, for a total of 12 cards a pack (plus the art card). See here for our source: Disney Lorcana

The expected value is easy. Number of each card we receive multiplied by its average value. We proceed to the next card until we are done and add everything together.

6 commons x 8 cents each = 48 cents

3 Uncommons x 17 cents each = 51 cents

Sum of all rares, super rares, and legendaries: $205.88. Total in that set: 78. Average card price: $2.64

2 rares or above x $2.64 each = $5.28

For calculating the odds of a foil card, I am using 1 out of every 72 packs to get an Enchanted card. Some sites are saying First Chapter was close to 1 out of every 96 packs. That means 71 out of 72 packs you’ll get a Cold Foil card.

71 / 72 * ($461.24 above / 204 Cold Foil cards) = $2.23

1 / 72 * $110.59 (Average Enchanted value) = $1.54.

The expected value in the foil slot is $2.23 + $1.54 = $3.77.

Summing up, 6 Commons + 3 Uncommons + 2 Rares or Above+ 1 Foil = $0.48 + $0.51 + $5.28 + $3.77 = $10.03.

I checked the numbers thrice, I couldn’t believe it. The expected value of a Lorcana is almost more than double what a packs sells for!!! It’s one reason why I noted down my math here, to see if anyone found any mistakes. If we looked at Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 expected value, we were expected to lose about 35% on each pack. I don’t know how long a situation like this can last. There seems to be lots of stock available.

We were fortunate enough to get a Namaari Enchanted card in our booster box (1/24 odds). That card has gone from about $82 when we got it to above $100 today.

How’s your experience with Lorcana so far? Ours has been a pleasant surprise.

Sincerely yours,

smilingdad

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