Published on December 11th, 2023
Our next piece we’ll discuss traditional investments. A lot has changed from our 3rd quarter update. Today, we look at Scarlet & Violet 151 (SV151). We have gone through and updated all prices from TCGPlayer, along with our expected pack value. SV151 Price Guide link
SV151 set value
The current set value for SV151 is $833.06. 24.64% of the cards (44 cards) concentrate 96.48% of the value.This is sharp decrease from 11/17, when the value was estimated as $1,035.41.
Why the difference? We were using pricecharting.com at the time. Pricecharting uses eBay prices, and from first hand experience the shipping and handling fees are high in eBay for a single card. This obscures the true market value of each card. As of this update, all prices are from tcgplayer, which posts the market price for all sellers of a card. This greatly reduced the prices of commons, uncommons, and rares. The current market price for a pack is $5.66, a decrease of 10¢ from 11/17. It would require you to buy 147 packs equivalent to complete the set, down from 160 packs on 10/2/23.
Breakdown by rarity type
Common: 66 cards, total value $4.27, average common value 6.5¢
Uncommon: 62 cards, total value $5.18, average uncommon value 8.4¢
Rare: 25 cards, total value $4.22, average rare value 16.9¢
Double Rare 12 cards, total value $27.21, average double rare value $2.27
Hyper Rare 3 cards, total value $19.33, average hyper rare value $6.44
Ultra Rare 12 cards, $174 in value, average ultra rare value $14.5
Illustration Rare 16 cards, $240.72 in value, and an average value of $15.05
And finally, Special Illustration Rares have 11 cards worth $358.13, for an average of $32.56 each.
We used this calibration to reset our eBay prices on our main SV151 auction.
Singles vs Packs
The answer hasn’t changed. Singles are cheaper than buying packs to complete the set. The expected value of a pack is $3.70 per the latest prices for cards over $3. With a pack price of $5.66, buying many packs will subject you to an estimated -34.6% loss per pack. Or it means you can expect something $3 or more in valie 65.4% of the time. Check my math on that last statement.
Double rares and some unpopular illustration rares have come down in price. Special Illustration Rares and Ultra Rares continue to hold steady. If you are a buyer look for bargains. If you are a seller, sell now, before the holiday season brings a torrent of supply.
Reverse holos for some cards confound us. They were not evenly printed, and some cards are $1 for reverse holo rares and $2 for reverse holo commons and uncommons such as Metapod and Exeggecutor. We’ll cover the average prices for reverse holos later in the week.
Would be buy more packs of 151? Only if we didn’t open them and sold them as they were. We’re ordering Paradox Fates and buying other singles we want from other SV sets. It’s crazy we pulled a Charizard Ex SIR before we pull an uncommon Energy Sticker, probably over more than 50 packs.
Long term, I hope the demand and dwindling supply increases desirability and prices one year from now, when the print run for the set comes closer to an end.
Sincerely yours,
smilingdad
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