Published on October 2nd, 2023
Last post, we mentioned how we wanted to complete the Scarlet and Violet-151 set. The simple question becomes, how much will it cost to collect every card in the set? Three approaches come to mind. A completed set means every single card, but we don’t need all the holo or reverse cards in a set. One of each card will be sufficient.
The odds approach
Your odds of pulling Special Illustration Rare Charizard ex in any given pack of Scarlet & Violet—151 are less than half a percent (0.44%)
TCG Player (1)
The worst odds according to TCG Player is pulling a Special Illustration Rare Charizard ex, with odds of 0.44% in any pack. This was estimated by TCG Player opening 1,500 Scarlet and Violet-151 packs. The rounded pull rate is to get one in 1 in 225 packs. As of 10/2, the price for one pack is $6.23. 225 x $6.23 gives us $1,401.75. Not a small sum but doable given enough time.
The assumption is by chasing the hardest card in the set, we naturally pull every other card we need.
We don’t encourage buying individual packs. The good cards may have been found and you get the remainder, which has worse odds than a random sample. We learned that lesson buying very expensive Evolving Skies packs. Buying Elite Trainer Boxes or Booster Boxes is your best bet. If you want to buy bulk ETB’s, StockX has 4 151 ETB’s for $169. That works out to $4.70 a pack (4 * 9 * $4.70 = $169).
The bottoms-up approach
Another approach is looking at pricecharting.com and individually adding up the price to purchase each card.
Total cost = Cost of card (1) + Cost of card (2) + … + Cost of card (207) + Shipping + Tax
Shipping and Tax are necessary for both, but baked in to the cost of the pack if you buy enough in bulk. In the individual approach, the worst case is buying all 207 cards individually.
I created a spreadsheet with every card in the set.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19aCpcZA3zMSbScznJk_rWgODx1AgfxgjXnm6pzMW6S0/
My total was $1,064.47 without shipping or tax.
The ratio between the first method and second is about 1.316. I am guessing 1.5 to 2 is a good ratio where it makes more sense to buy cards than buy direct. We’ll need to test this method out on other sets. The benefit of the first method: more cards and the joy of opening the packs, the thrill of gambling and the unexpected, cards to trade or sell. At 225 packs, that’s about 2,475 cards. Storing all those cards is a pain. It’s one reason we’ll start a store soon, to declutter and focus. The advantage of the second method: spending less money, less clutter, precision on getting the whole set. Which approach you prefer probably depends on your temperament.
Blended approach
These methods don’t have to be done in isolation. You can purchase enough packs to get to 70% to 80%. The remaining cards you can purchase as singles. It’s a saner approach.
Conclusion
This approach is a moment in time. As more cards enter the marketplace, prices will go down. If the set only has a few hits, it will be easier to buy singles. If the set is hard to get, prices will go up. The analysis may need repeating a few times until the set is complete. Do we buy more packs or buy it individually? That’s the queation.
themandalorian met some kids at the playground yesterday and traded it up. That was her first time. Valuable lessons for life I hope. We’re selling some hard sleeves we have extras of to help protect some valuable cards.
What’s your way to best collect a set?
Sincerely yours,
smilingdad
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Notes:
(1) TCG Player Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—151 Pull Rates https://infinite.tcgplayer.com/article/Pokémon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet—151-Pull-Rates/
(2) smilingdad https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19aCpcZA3zMSbScznJk_rWgODx1AgfxgjXnm6pzMW6S0/ S&V-151 price list as of 10/2/23
smilingdad 