Stocks implode, while crypto explodes higher

The S&P 500 remains in a holding pattern after the recent bank runs, no bullish signal given.

$SPX chart from stockcharts shows no buy signal on a monthly chart

After a mini bear rally, the Dow has given a sell signal again.

The black 5 month exponential moving average has crossed below the 34 month exponential moving average for the Dow. If you were a trader, that’s a sell signal. Image from stockcharts.

Of all things, the Nasdaq was a port in the bank run storm. We are close to a buy signal on a monthly basis.

Of the 3, the Nasdaq is best positioned in US indices for a move higher

Gold continues its move higher, with a buy signal given last year.

With the Fed close to ending rate hikes, and bank trouble on multiple continents, gold has gotten a safety bid.
We will never recommend Bitcoin, based on its energy use. It has given a buy signal. Bitcoin got started in 2009, at the end of the last major financial crisis.

We always thought it was funny that Bitcoin has soared during the bank run. Most ways to convert currency to Bitcoin and Bitcoin back to currency rely on banks as intermediaries. Bitcoin benefits from bank issues and interest rate increase slowing down.

Ethereum has benefited like Bitcoin with the current bank panic. We patiently wait for our Ethereum to come back to breakeven.

No buy signal on Ethereum, we are very close.

The Regional Banking Index shows the damage. This won’t be undone overnight.

The regional bank index shows the largest crash since the pandemic.

Bank balance sheets are impaired. The value of long duration bonds has gone down due to higher interest rates. Commercial real estate faces higher interest rates and declining demand, as more people work from home. That’s bad for values.

On many days, as we hope to eke out 4% to 6% a year in the stock market, subject to violent drawdowns of 30% to 50%, it seems investing in stocks is a fools errand. Stocks without dividend payouts seems more foolish. We haven’t sold our positions, which seems dumb. Many money managers are in the same boat. If you miss the top 10 upside days, your overall returns go down tremendously. The fear of missing out keeps us in, the siren song of future returns imperiling us from current safety. We’ll let you know how that works out.

How are you handling the current bank panic and volatility?

Sincerely yours,


Copyright © 2023 smilingdad. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of smilingdad, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.

Published by smilingdad

My story is one of tragedy and redemption. We've made many mistakes along the way regarding our money. Our goal here is to show you how to take care of your money life long, and as much as we can, help the Earth along the way. I call it sustainable personal finance and ethical capitalism. Currently, I am a part time writer for Cleantechnica and part-time licensed financial professional, along with being a full-time dad.

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