A recent First Street Foundation analysis was published, going through each US county and calculating the number of heat index days above 100°F (37.8°C) in 2053. The results are bad. Extreme US heat will expand from 46% percent of Americans dealing with at least three consecutive days of 100-plus degree heat to 63% by 2053.
From the Washington Post:
Nowhere is the danger more widespread than in the South, where global warming is expected to deliver an average of 20 extra days of triple-digit heat per year. In some southern states, such as Texas and Florida, residents could see over 70 consecutive days with the heat index topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit.Washington Post
Pictures of the expected changes are stark.
The difference in California, Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, and especially Florida are noticeable. People have migrated to these states for the warmer weather and jobs. If millions of people are unable to survive the heat, they will become climate refugees and flee to cooler temperatures. We can see the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine of a few million. Multiply that change by 100 to 1000 worldwide.
Axios shows a different view of the data. They show where the heat index is expected to reach 0.5 day or more above 125°F.
Axios notes the following:
- The report, which is based on First Street’s peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to “extreme heat,” defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million.
- However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 13 years.
In this view, from Texas to Illinois, the mid-Atlantic, California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida will see a large uptick in extreme heat days.
It wasn’t mentioned in the study, I have to imagine night time temperatures will set records too. We have noticed our current solar panel setup is enough to cover most of the AC use in the day time, but does not produce enough to cool the house down to a comfortable sleeping temperature at night. It’s one reason I am expanding our system, and even that might not be enough.
Meanwhile… The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country’s nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month.Axios
People don’t have to believe in climate change or science. They can say it is weather, or seasonal variations, blah blah blah. The climate is not going to care about their fact-free, reality distortion zone. We are all in this together. It’s too late to prevent the disastrous impact of climate change in the coming decades due to the amount of C02 we have released and continue to release. We can only work to mitigate the impacts.
Heat waves will be longer in duration in the future and reach more extreme temperatures. The oceans will absorb more heat and C02, making the oceans more acidic and inhospitable for life. Polar ice will continue melting, leaving less ice to reflect sunlight back into space and raising sea levels. We have seen extreme heat followed by devastating flooding. If these models are correct, it’s a good bet even more extreme flooding will follow from parched soil, unable to retain moisture.
Final conclusion. For a variety of personal liberty and climate related decisions, if you are thinking of moving to one of these states, re-think your plans. It adds to the reasons we have of leaving Texas.
Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street’s analysis found.Axios