29 Oct 2020
Last post, I mentioned the importance of voting. According to the Socrates model at Armstrong Economics, they are predicting a record 61% of the 239 million registered voters will vote in 2020. My calculator says that is more than 145 million voters voting in this election. Wow! According to the Elect Project, 80 million of those votes have already been cast. Votes have already reached 95% of 2016 levels for Texas, and is above 80% in Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Montana, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Many states are not too far behind with 70% plus percent of 2016 levels.
FiveThirtyEight.com says Biden will win, with an 89% chance. The Economist has a model saying Biden will win, with 95% probability. I call bull that these models are correct and they forecast the final electoral college vote correctly. Scientists try to compensate for various biases. They have done better. Humans are random, emotional, and then intelligent. With a record setting turnout, nothing is certain, certainly not smart models.
Polls have underestimated various parts of the electorate, depending on where they live and which party they vote for in 2016 and 2018. These are complex simulations of many different paths. They might be very smart models, created by very smart people. Problem is, there is only one reality, which is the one we choose. That reality is based on the votes cast, not on easy simulations and mouse manipulations. It is simple. Vote! Choose your own reality. Complacency is the killer of freedom.
I think the election will be very close. Many swing states can go for President Trump or Vice President Biden. Depending on how that goes, the incumbent may win another challenge, or the challenger may pull off an upset victory. 2020 is a Census year. Your vote helps decide how your state legislature carves out US Congressional districts for the next 10 years. Your vote matters, even if you think your state is safe. Vote! Tell everyone you know on social media, your friends, your neighbors, even your enemies, to go ahead and do their civic duty.
That means your future, your priorities, how society evolves with our government, all depend on your vote. My hope is our democracy, our republic, our freedoms, and our liberties are strong enough to withstand who wins and who loses. One way to ensure that happens is to make sure your voice is heard. The act of voting binds us together, as one people, Americans.
Congressional districts for the 108th through 112th sessions were established by the states based on the result of the 2000 Census. Congressional districts for the 113th through 116th sessions were established by the states based on the result of the 2010 Census.census.gov
The USA Constitution starts with We The People, not We The Government, not We the Pollsters, and certainly not We The Lobbyists. It matters.
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Vote for whoever holds those ideals of our Founders most dear.