Vote!

USA Today noted that anxiety around the coming election is causing stress to 70% of Americans. I admit, between a recent family illness, and constantly checking polls and election news, I’m stressed about the election and what the results will mean. I am happy to say, we voted before we got bowled under by weather changes and a nasty non-pandemic virus. The key point is simple. Vote! Tell everyone you know to vote.

In many ways, how the USA votes next week impacts not only the election, but has results for cleantech, equality, diversity, race, trade, international relations, jobs, the economy, and global leadership over the coming decade. I’ll explore some of these areas are in my next piece. Women, and minority women specifically, have been badly impacted by job losses over the last year, as shown by CNBC here.

What is the current state of the election?

The Cook Political Report, which touts itself as a non-partisan newsletter analyzing elections and political trends, has an Electoral College rating chart.

Between Likely Democrat to Likely Republican, 273 electoral votes are in play, enough to decide the election. Six states are a toss up, too close to call, and have 123 electoral votes at stake. I am not a fan of the Electoral College, preferring a straight popular vote to decide who becomes President, but it is the system we have. I don’t recall an election that had this much energy or this much at stake, not only for the President, but the USA House, USA Senate, state legislatures, and re-districting of Congressional districts based on the latest Census.

How does voting stack up to 2016?

The Elect Project has been keeping track of turnout this cycle compared to 2016. The results are encouraging.

Over 54% of the population has voted early compared to 2016. The high level of voter participation points to record voting by Election Day, which might surpass records going back 100 years. Again, Vote!

Simulations of Electoral College results

FiveThirtyEight.com has an excellent interactive Electoral Map. You can enter your selections, and based on who you think wins each state, it will re-calculate each candidate’s chances of winning. (Side bar, we seriously need to consider ranked choice voting. More on that topic here. No one should ever feel they are throwing away their vote or voting for a candidate they don’t like.)

Here’s how the simulation changes, if I show Iowa, a toss up state, votes Republican for the President.

Notice how more of the map leans one way, influenced by trends that help win Iowa. These states are more likely to vote in a similar fashion.

Here’s how the results change if Iowa votes Democratic. One way or another, if one state leans one way, many states will lean similarly, enough to decide the Electoral College and election.

Here are my thoughts on how the Electoral College turns out.

As you can see, I am skeptical of the national polls. My forecast results in a very narrow victory for VP Biden. Do not take your vote for granted, in any state. Collectively, it makes a big difference and determines where we go as a country. Vote!